Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: FK LNZ Cherkasy 2 - 1 FK Kharkiv?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 38¢ · $880 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$879.62
-$430.21
68.7¢ → 37.5¢
-45% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Mature
30h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IW iWasEnoughCTR | Yesavg 99.5¢ | $993.96 | $375.12 | -$613.87 | 51% 12924-12461 (25385) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179 | Noavg 60¢ | $317.27 | $309.56 | -$7.71 | 21% 612-2279 (2891) |
 SilentSharkCTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $2.79 | $104.66 | +$101.88 | 58% 196-140 (336) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.35 | $64.82 | +$64.47 | 47% 120-133 (253) |
AS asdkjhsad<$100 | Noavg 1¢ | $0.4 | $24.98 | +$24.58 | — 0-4 (4) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $0.03 | $0.48 | +$0.44 | 45% 32075-39228 (71303) |
Invested
$993.96
Value
$375.12
PnL
-$613.87
Record
51%
12924-12461 (25385)
Invested
$317.27
Value
$309.56
PnL
-$7.71
Record
21%
612-2279 (2891)
SilentSharkCTRInvested
$2.79
Value
$104.66
PnL
+$101.88
Record
58%
196-140 (336)
Invested
$0.35
Value
$64.82
PnL
+$64.47
Record
47%
120-133 (253)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$24.98
PnL
+$24.58
Record
—
0-4 (4)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.48
PnL
+$0.44
Record
45%
32075-39228 (71303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.