Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: FK Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 3 FK Polissia?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 38¢ · $503 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$502.8
$369.77
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.88 | $297.55 | +$276.39 | 21% 629-2353 (2982) |
 SilentSharkCTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $2.83 | $107.49 | +$104.67 | 58% 196-140 (336) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $94.28 | $62 | -$32 | 57% 60850-45924 (106774) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $5.28 | $31.92 | +$26.88 | 52% 49472-46424 (95896) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Yesavg 99¢ | $10 | $3.84 | -$6.16 | 65% 25734-13843 (39577) |
Invested
$0.88
Value
$297.55
PnL
+$276.39
Record
21%
629-2353 (2982)
SilentSharkCTRInvested
$2.83
Value
$107.49
PnL
+$104.67
Record
58%
196-140 (336)
Invested
$94.28
Value
$62
PnL
-$32
Record
57%
60850-45924 (106774)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$31.92
PnL
+$26.88
Record
52%
49472-46424 (95896)
Invested
$10
Value
$3.84
PnL
-$6.16
Record
65%
25734-13843 (39577)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.