Consensus PnL $243K · win rate 65% (15634–8296, n=23930) · PM monthly #843 · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$243.0K
Record
15634W / 8296L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 23930 settled
Batting Avg
54.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#915
Source
PM monthly #843
Trades
9,808
Markets
39,572
Volume
$7.4M
Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 18 on the consensus side (72%)- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $1.1K · now 54¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (76% of 32)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex $995 · now 6¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-11-01?Yes $496 · now 100¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (64% of 23)
- Swiss Indoors Basel: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin VacherotJiri Lehecka $37 · now 87¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (65% of 27)
- Courmayeur: Noma Noha Akugue vs Alina CharaevaAlina Charaeva $32 · now 72¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?Yes $20 · now 31¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (No)
- SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Under $19 · now 37¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Over)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5Over $18 · now 70¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 13)
Specialties
10,549 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 61¢- NBA
+37 pts
side won 97% of 368 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +42%
- College Football
+37 pts
side won 100% of 44 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +49%
- NHL
+35 pts
side won 92% of 101 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +40%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 32% of 1299)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 77% of 1979)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 91% of 3084)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 97% of 4187)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.