Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: FK Kolos Kovalivka 3 - 0 FK Polissia?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 38¢ · $759 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$758.99
-$305.12
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IW iWasEnoughCTR | Yesavg 100.4¢ | $1.0K | $380 | -$619 | 51% 12924-12461 (25385) |
 SilentShark | Noavg 12¢ | $44 | $227.34 | +$183.34 | 58% 196-140 (336) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.88 | $140.54 | +$130.55 | 21% 629-2353 (2982) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $1.11 | $6.89 | +$5.78 | 47% 123-136 (259) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Yesavg 90.4¢ | $10.05 | $4.22 | -$5.78 | 65% 25734-13843 (39577) |
Invested
$1,004
Value
$380
PnL
-$619
Record
51%
12924-12461 (25385)
SilentSharkInvested
$44
Value
$227.34
PnL
+$183.34
Record
58%
196-140 (336)
Invested
$0.88
Value
$140.54
PnL
+$130.55
Record
21%
629-2353 (2982)
Invested
$1.11
Value
$6.89
PnL
+$5.78
Record
47%
123-136 (259)
Invested
$10.05
Value
$4.22
PnL
-$5.78
Record
65%
25734-13843 (39577)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.