Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
FK Obolon Kyiv vs. FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 50¢ · $29 held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$29.06
$9.85
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $8.8 | $19.13 | +$10.33 | 47% 116-130 (246) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $5.86 | $5.43 | -$0.43 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.5 | +$0.15 | 56% 39453-31101 (70554) |
87 0x87a7...8cea<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $2.2 | $2 | -$0.2 | — |
Invested
$8.8
Value
$19.13
PnL
+$10.33
Record
47%
116-130 (246)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$5.86
Value
$5.43
PnL
-$0.43
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
56%
39453-31101 (70554)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2
PnL
-$0.2
Record
—
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.