Consensus PnL $1.0M · win rate 57% (23739–18017, n=41756) · PM monthly #243 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.0M
Record
23739W / 18017L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 41756 settled
Batting Avg
62.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1318
Source
PM monthly #243
Trades
13,924
Markets
55,726
Volume
$17.9M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 7 on the consensus side (71%)- Villa Maria: Ian Luca Vertberger vs Denis KlokDenis Klok $1.8K · now 5¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (70% of 13)
- Taranto: Matteo Sciahbasi vs Arvid NordquistMatteo Sciahbasi $406 · now 36¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (57% of 8)
- Counter-Strike: WBT Academy vs Iberian Soul - Map 2 WinnerWBT Academy $229 · now 57¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Iberian Soul)
- Set 1 Winner: Alice Tubello vs Julia GrabherJulia Grabher $13 · now 100¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- FK Baltika Kaliningrad vs. FK Akron Tolyatti: O/U 2.5Under $7 · now 88¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- SS Lazio leading at halftime?No $1 · now 100¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace $1 · now 96¢ · in at 71¢against the consensus (AJ Auxerre)
Specialties
17,478 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 58¢- NFL
+47 pts
side won 100% of 199 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +44%
- Esports
+42 pts
side won 97% of 4548 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +44%
- College Basketball
+43 pts
side won 87% of 1049 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +49%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 67% of 1795)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 99% of 4005)
- 50–70¢: 34%(won 100% of 5886)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 100% of 5792)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.