Will Albania win on 2026-11-12?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$2.1K
$40.49
48.1¢ → 50.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 48¢ | $868.95 | $914.21 | +$45.26 | 37% 191-330 (521) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 48.2¢ | $380.72 | $398.54 | +$17.82 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
GC GC-PCTR | Yesavg 52¢ | $243.85 | $232.13 | -$11.72 | 16% 66-347 (413) |
NM NM-PCTR | Yesavg 52¢ | $243.52 | $231.81 | -$11.71 | 60% 3442-2335 (5777) |
OD Oddstorm | Noavg 48.1¢ | $138.95 | $145.79 | +$6.84 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.5¢ | $96.37 | $92.57 | -$3.81 | 48% 859-937 (1796) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $52.6 | $50.07 | -$2.53 | 61% 894-573 (1467) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $5.05 | +$0.35 | 31% 170-383 (553) |
Invested
$868.95
Value
$914.21
PnL
+$45.26
Record
37%
191-330 (521)
Invested
$380.72
Value
$398.54
PnL
+$17.82
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
Invested
$243.85
Value
$232.13
PnL
-$11.72
Record
16%
66-347 (413)
Invested
$243.52
Value
$231.81
PnL
-$11.71
Record
60%
3442-2335 (5777)
Invested
$138.95
Value
$145.79
PnL
+$6.84
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$96.37
Value
$92.57
PnL
-$3.81
Record
48%
859-937 (1796)
Invested
$52.6
Value
$50.07
PnL
-$2.53
Record
61%
894-573 (1467)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.35
Record
31%
170-383 (553)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.