Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 86¢ · $861 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$860.94
-$7.9
85.9¢ → 85.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 86¢ | $732.61 | $724.09 | -$8.52 | 37% 191-330 (521) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $86.42 | $86.42 | +$0 | 16% 66-347 (413) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $28.33 | $28.33 | -$0 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $13.16 | $13.63 | +$0.47 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $4.25 | $4.25 | +$0 | 31% 170-383 (553) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $4.07 | $4.21 | +$0.15 | 53% 323-288 (611) |
Invested
$732.61
Value
$724.09
PnL
-$8.52
Record
37%
191-330 (521)
Invested
$86.42
Value
$86.42
PnL
+$0
Record
16%
66-347 (413)
Invested
$28.33
Value
$28.33
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
Invested
$13.16
Value
$13.63
PnL
+$0.47
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$4.25
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
170-383 (553)
Invested
$4.07
Value
$4.21
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
323-288 (611)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.