Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Portugal win on 2026-11-14?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 36¢ · $760 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$760.39
$20.56
33.9¢ → 35.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
40h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 33.8¢ | $432.3 | $447.39 | +$15.09 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 33.8¢ | $139.4 | $139.34 | +$4.94 | 52% 441-414 (855) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 65.6¢ | $100.13 | $99.25 | -$0.88 | 61% 921-592 (1513) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $56 | $56.8 | +$0.8 | 60% 3476-2366 (5842) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $13.39 | $13.79 | +$0.39 | 22% 33-116 (149) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $3.6 | $3.81 | +$0.22 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
Invested
$432.3
Value
$447.39
PnL
+$15.09
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$139.4
Value
$139.34
PnL
+$4.94
Record
52%
441-414 (855)
Invested
$100.13
Value
$99.25
PnL
-$0.88
Record
61%
921-592 (1513)
Invested
$56
Value
$56.8
PnL
+$0.8
Record
60%
3476-2366 (5842)
Invested
$13.39
Value
$13.79
PnL
+$0.39
Record
22%
33-116 (149)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.81
PnL
+$0.22
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.