Will Belarus win on 2026-11-12?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 87¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Yes87¢No13¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$26.96

Smart Money Entry

87.1¢ → 86.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$402.11

Total Shares2,773

Combined PnL+$36.33

Yes5 traders

Total Value$917.67

Total Shares1,073

Combined PnL-$9.36

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 12.2¢	$349.78	$384.61	+$34.83	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
NM NM-P	Yesavg 87¢	$349.11	$347.08	-$2.03	57% 22821-16910 (39731)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 87¢	$349.11	$347.08	-$2.03	57% 22672-16911 (39583)
AL Alegrandebig	Yesavg 88¢	$175.94	$170.94	-$5	95% 3996-225 (4221)
38 38791873984189<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$39.9	$39.66	-$0.23	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$12.98	$12.9	-$0.08	57% 25537-19073 (44610)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$10.22	$9.87	-$0.34	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$5.78	$7.62	+$1.84	48% 8401-8934 (17335)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$349.78

Value

$384.61

PnL

+$34.83

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$349.11

Value

$347.08

PnL

-$2.03

Record

57%

22821-16910 (39731)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$349.11

Value

$347.08

PnL

-$2.03

Record

57%

22672-16911 (39583)

Alegrandebig

Yes

Invested

$175.94

Value

$170.94

PnL

-$5

Record

95%

3996-225 (4221)

38791873984189<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.9

Value

$39.66

PnL

-$0.23

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.98

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$0.08

Record

57%

25537-19073 (44610)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$10.22

Value

$9.87

PnL

-$0.34

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

OddstormCTR<$100

Invested

$5.78

Value

$7.62

PnL

+$1.84

Record

48%

8401-8934 (17335)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.