Consensus PnL -$14K · win rate 96% (3970–187, n=4157) · PM monthly #863 · holds 41 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-14.2K
Record
3970W / 187L
Win Rate
96.0%
of 4157 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#115
Source
PM monthly #863
Record (90 d)
300/350 · 86%
Trades
13,596
Markets
4,302
Volume
$2.9M
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Top consensus positions
41 in listed consensus markets · 38 of 41 on the consensus side (93%)- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?No $25K · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (89% of 18)
- Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?No $14K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?No $7.5K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (64% of 22)
- Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?No $7.1K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No $5.5K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (82% of 22)
- Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-11-08?Yes $4.5K · now 45¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (75% of 23)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $4.3K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (83% of 65)
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?No $4.2K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
1,369 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 94¢- Tennis
+4 pts
side won 57% of 76 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +2%
- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 59% of 32 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +2%
- Mentions
+3 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 97¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 91% of 112 at an average 93¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 12% of 33)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 46% of 41)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 62% of 50)
- 70¢ and up: 91%(won 99% of 1245)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.