Will San Marino vs. Belarus end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 90¢ · $125 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$125.2
$0.33
89.3¢ → 90¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $80.91 | $81.82 | +$0.91 | 50% 262-258 (520) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $31.01 | $31.01 | +$0 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $7.73 | $7.56 | -$0.17 | 32% 184-398 (582) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.12 | $3.71 | -$0.41 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
AL AlegrandebigCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $1.11 | $1.11 | +$0 | — 4-6 (10) |
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$80.91
Value
$81.82
PnL
+$0.91
Record
50%
262-258 (520)
Invested
$31.01
Value
$31.01
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$7.73
Value
$7.56
PnL
-$0.17
Record
32%
184-398 (582)
Invested
$4.12
Value
$3.71
PnL
-$0.41
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$1.11
Value
$1.11
PnL
+$0
Record
—
4-6 (10)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.