Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Servette FC Chênois Féminin (75%) · Servette FC Chênois Féminin at 78¢ · $770 held · ended Nov 10
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Neutral
Servette FC Chênois Féminin
4
Servette FC Chênois Féminin 75%
1 arb excluded
$770.03
$254.36
21¢ → 78¢
+271% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralServette FC Chênois Féminin at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Servette FC Chênois Féminin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Servette FC Chênois Fémininavg 20.8¢ | $217.54 | $471.21 | +$253.67 | 50% 1423-1425 (2848) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | AS Romaavg 82.7¢ | $541.84 | $272.83 | -$269.01 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
| └ AS Roma leg | AS Romaavg 82.7¢ | $473.52 | $194.73 | -$278.8 | |
| └ Servette FC Chênois Féminin leg | Servette FC Chênois Fémininavg 57.7¢ | $68.32 | $78.1 | +$9.79 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | AS Romaavg 36¢ | $16.84 | $10.76 | -$6.08 | 26% 230-647 (877) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Servette FC Chênois Fémininavg 40¢ | $6.7 | $7.97 | +$1.27 | 31% 176-393 (569) |
 RN1<$100 | Servette FC Chênois Fémininavg 16¢ | $1.76 | $7.26 | +$5.5 | 58% 3768-2723 (6491) |
Invested
$217.54
Value
$471.21
PnL
+$253.67
Record
50%
1423-1425 (2848)
Invested
$541.84
Value
$272.83
PnL
-$269.01
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Both legs:
Invested
$16.84
Value
$10.76
PnL
-$6.08
Record
26%
230-647 (877)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$7.97
PnL
+$1.27
Record
31%
176-393 (569)
RN1<$100Invested
$1.76
Value
$7.26
PnL
+$5.5
Record
58%
3768-2723 (6491)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.