Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (97%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
BK Häcken FF vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 3.0¢ · $247 held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 75%
1 arb excluded
$246.65
-$82.46
19.3¢ → 3¢
-84% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 21.5¢ | $202.11 | $141.73 | -$60.39 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 72.5¢ | $79.2 | $101.62 | +$22.42 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 21.5¢ | $122.92 | $40.1 | -$82.81 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 22.4¢ | $165.45 | $80.11 | -$85.34 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $14.23 | $18.08 | +$3.85 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 4¢ | $4.15 | $6.22 | +$2.07 | 58% 3761-2714 (6475) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $3.55 | $0.51 | -$3.04 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
Invested
$202.11
Value
$141.73
PnL
-$60.39
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Both legs:
Invested
$165.45
Value
$80.11
PnL
-$85.34
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$14.23
Value
$18.08
PnL
+$3.85
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$4.15
Value
$6.22
PnL
+$2.07
Record
58%
3761-2714 (6475)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$0.51
PnL
-$3.04
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.