Exact Score: Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women 2 - 0 HB Køge?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.8K
-$191.87
98¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 98¢ | $1.2K | $968.23 | -$247.69 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
 RN1 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $720.54 | $573.34 | -$147.2 | 57% 4034-3050 (7084) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $15.46 | $162.66 | +$147.2 | 31% 390-871 (1261) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $2.82 | $38.95 | +$36.13 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $18.8 | $38.49 | +$19.69 | 31% 384-854 (1238) |
Invested
$1,215.92
Value
$968.23
PnL
-$247.69
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
RN1Invested
$720.54
Value
$573.34
PnL
-$147.2
Record
57%
4034-3050 (7084)
Invested
$15.46
Value
$162.66
PnL
+$147.2
Record
31%
390-871 (1261)
Invested
$2.82
Value
$38.95
PnL
+$36.13
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$38.49
PnL
+$19.69
Record
31%
384-854 (1238)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.