Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Real Madrid CF Femenino vs. Paris FC end in a draw?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 17¢ · $99 held · ends Nov 10

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$99.41

Combined PnL

$0.18

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$70.27

Total Shares84

Combined PnL-$0.55

Yes3 traders

Total Value$29.14

Total Shares171

Combined PnL+$0.73

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 84¢	$49.81	$49.52	-$0.3	52% 5296-4806 (10102)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 84¢	$21	$20.75	-$0.25	24% 200-618 (818)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$16.75	$16.75	+$0	24% 200-638 (838)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$9.49	$10.08	+$0.59	50% 1378-1394 (2772)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$2.17	$2.31	+$0.14	29% 154-375 (529)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$49.81

Value

$49.52

PnL

-$0.3

Record

52%

5296-4806 (10102)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$20.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

24%

200-618 (818)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.75

Value

$16.75

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

200-638 (838)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.49

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$0.59

Record

50%

1378-1394 (2772)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.31

PnL

+$0.14

Record

29%

154-375 (529)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.7%

17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$433.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

533.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.