Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien: Draw at halftime?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 50¢ · $638 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$638.47
-$136.57
64.3¢ → 49.5¢
-23% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WH whosayCTR | Yesavg 72.7¢ | $424.34 | $297.77 | -$126.57 | 67% 16-8 (24) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR | Yesavg 51¢ | $188.59 | $188.59 | +$0 | — 2-1 (3) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 60.3¢ | $136.93 | $116.9 | -$20.02 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
 Cypya<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $14.96 | $26.57 | +$11.61 | — 1-3 (4) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $10.22 | $8.63 | -$1.59 | 34% 233-457 (690) |
Invested
$424.34
Value
$297.77
PnL
-$126.57
Record
67%
16-8 (24)
Invested
$188.59
Value
$188.59
PnL
+$0
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$136.93
Value
$116.9
PnL
-$20.02
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
Cypya<$100Invested
$14.96
Value
$26.57
PnL
+$11.61
Record
—
1-3 (4)
Invested
$10.22
Value
$8.63
PnL
-$1.59
Record
34%
233-457 (690)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.