Will a Junior win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 65¢ · $397 held
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$397.29
$28.87
61.2¢ → 65¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Yesavg 64.9¢ | $175.7 | $175.95 | +$0.25 | 66% 918-479 (1397) |
MI milkteaboba | Yesavg 57.8¢ | $130.59 | $146.85 | +$16.25 | 68% 41-19 (60) |
 JustADonkCTR<$100 | Noavg 31.8¢ | $48.29 | $53.2 | +$4.91 | 55% 913-754 (1667) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Noavg 29.9¢ | $242.69 | $13.5 | +$4.46 | 48% 6843-7476 (14319) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $20 | $7.8 | +$3 | 67% 616-310 (926) |
Invested
$175.7
Value
$175.95
PnL
+$0.25
Record
66%
918-479 (1397)
Invested
$130.59
Value
$146.85
PnL
+$16.25
Record
68%
41-19 (60)
JustADonkCTR<$100Invested
$48.29
Value
$53.2
PnL
+$4.91
Record
55%
913-754 (1667)
Invested
$242.69
Value
$13.5
PnL
+$4.46
Record
48%
6843-7476 (14319)
Invested
$20
Value
$7.8
PnL
+$3
Record
67%
616-310 (926)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.