Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.00T and $3.50T at the end of November 2026?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 47¢ · $587 held · ends Nov 30

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$587.26

Combined PnL

$79.14

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$440.69

Total Shares938

Combined PnL+$76.44

No3 traders

Total Value$146.57

Total Shares275

Combined PnL+$2.69

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LiquidifierCTR	Yesavg 38.8¢	$364.24	$440.69	+$76.44	50% 1107-1125 (2232)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 52¢	$88.93	$91.14	+$2.64	53% 7528-6656 (14184)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 53.8¢	$40.38	$39.97	-$0.4	72% 8554-3325 (11879)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 52¢	$15.08	$15.46	+$0.45	38% 2935-4692 (7627)

LiquidifierCTR

Yes

Invested

$364.24

Value

$440.69

PnL

+$76.44

Record

50%

1107-1125 (2232)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$88.93

Value

$91.14

PnL

+$2.64

Record

53%

7528-6656 (14184)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$40.38

Value

$39.97

PnL

-$0.4

Record

72%

8554-3325 (11879)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$15.08

Value

$15.46

PnL

+$0.45

Record

38%

2935-4692 (7627)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.9%

46.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$104.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

204.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.