Consensus PnL $42K · win rate 33% (1590–3301, n=4891) · PM monthly #404 · holds 152 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$41.5K
Record
1590W / 3301L
Win Rate
33.0%
of 4891 settled
Batting Avg
15.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2500
Source
PM monthly #404
Record (90 d)
716/2398 · 30%
Trades
2,760
Markets
9,361
Volume
$4.9M
Top consensus positions
152 in listed consensus markets · 121 of 152 on the consensus side (80%)- Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes $190 · now 60¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (74% of 19)
- Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $111 · now 9¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Brighton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $79 · now 7¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
- Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?Yes $78 · now 98¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?Yes $70 · now 10¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes $60 · now 14¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Yes $54 · now 15¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $51 · now 4¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (96% of 23)
Specialties
2,557 settled consensus markets · held side won 37% at an average entry of 38¢- MLB
+17 pts
side won 70% of 20 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +16%
- Economy
+3 pts
side won 62% of 89 · avg entry 58¢
ROI −12%
- Other Sports
+5 pts
side won 20% of 10 · avg entry 16¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Tech — held side won 24% of 296 at an average 27¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 59%(won 2% of 1513)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 28% of 98)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 76% of 105)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 97% of 841)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.