Consensus PnL $27K · win rate 81% (6497–1491, n=7988) · was PM monthly #528 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$26.6K
Record
6497W / 1491L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 7988 settled
Batting Avg
36.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#397
Source
PM monthly #528
Trades
12,476
Markets
14,638
Volume
$4.3M
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 11 on the consensus side (82%)- Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No $52 · now 55¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (50% of 26)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $25 · now 21¢with the consensus (94% of 34)
- Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $24 · now 4¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
- Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $24 · now 4¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
- Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?No $3 · now 3¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $2 · now 1¢with the consensus (100% of 19)
- Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $2 · now 2¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $2 · now 2¢with the consensus (100% of 24)
Specialties
4,869 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 82¢- Culture
+2 pts
side won 93% of 80 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +4%
- F1
+4 pts
side won 80% of 85 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +5%
- College Football
+2 pts
side won 95% of 40 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 80% of 998 at an average 80¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 4% of 616)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 34% of 170)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 59% of 207)
- 70¢ and up: 80%(won 98% of 3876)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.