Will Aston Villa finish in the top 6 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 76¢ · $774 held · ends Jun 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$774.16
$11.45
66.1¢ → 76¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Noavg 59.3¢ | $323.27 | $411.69 | +$25.43 | 40% 1567-2381 (3948) |
ND ndb1 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $312.91 | $263.6 | -$41.62 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
 thefakenickCTR | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $68.17 | $95.06 | +$26.89 | 50% 922-908 (1830) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $3.8 | +$0.75 | 77% 12686-3871 (16557) |
probabilityInvested
$323.27
Value
$411.69
PnL
+$25.43
Record
40%
1567-2381 (3948)
Invested
$312.91
Value
$263.6
PnL
-$41.62
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
thefakenickCTRInvested
$68.17
Value
$95.06
PnL
+$26.89
Record
50%
922-908 (1830)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$0.75
Record
77%
12686-3871 (16557)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.