Will Atlético Mineiro win the 2026 Copa do Brasil?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 89¢ · $357 held · ends Dec 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$357.09
$24.95
81.3¢ → 88.5¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DavidShekel | Noavg 85.4¢ | $260.85 | $270.42 | +$9.57 | 58% 574-408 (982) |
 macrosteaks<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $58.98 | $77.88 | +$18.9 | 55% 3331-2764 (6095) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $40 | $4.6 | -$5.8 | 27% 6133-16273 (22406) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $1.13 | $2.47 | +$1.34 | 24% 293-910 (1203) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $0.79 | $1.72 | +$0.93 | 30% 2229-5300 (7529) |
DavidShekelInvested
$260.85
Value
$270.42
PnL
+$9.57
Record
58%
574-408 (982)
macrosteaks<$100Invested
$58.98
Value
$77.88
PnL
+$18.9
Record
55%
3331-2764 (6095)
Invested
$40
Value
$4.6
PnL
-$5.8
Record
27%
6133-16273 (22406)
Invested
$1.13
Value
$2.47
PnL
+$1.34
Record
24%
293-910 (1203)
Invested
$0.79
Value
$1.72
PnL
+$0.93
Record
30%
2229-5300 (7529)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.