Consensus PnL $64K · win rate 31% (3485–7672, n=11157) · PM monthly #522 · holds 117 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$63.5K
Record
3485W / 7672L
Win Rate
31.0%
of 11157 settled
Batting Avg
47.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2196
Source
PM monthly #522
Trades
13,236
Markets
14,046
Volume
$4.0M
Top consensus positions
117 in listed consensus markets · 84 of 117 on the consensus side (72%)- Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes $6.9K · now 97¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (67% of 15)
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $5.3K · now 54¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (74% of 27)
- Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $4.9K · now 45¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.1K · now 89¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (67% of 42)
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $2.9K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (79% of 19)
- Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Yes $2.7K · now 84¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (80% of 15)
- Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes $2.4K · now 71¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (88% of 9)
- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Yes $2.0K · now 94¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
Specialties
1,556 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 65¢- Weather
+39 pts
side won 100% of 658 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +41%
- Economy
+42 pts
side won 100% of 39 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +23%
- Entertainment
+35 pts
side won 99% of 89 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +32%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 78% of 154)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 98% of 269)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 100% of 413)
- 70¢ and up: 46%(won 100% of 720)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.