Consensus PnL $176K · win rate 55% (2948–2379, n=5327) · was PM monthly #999 · holds 113 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$175.9K
Record
2948W / 2379L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 5327 settled
Batting Avg
61.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1487
Source
PM monthly #999
Record (90 d)
639/1292 · 49%
Trades
23,031
Markets
8,227
Volume
$6.7M
Top consensus positions
113 in listed consensus markets · 60 of 113 on the consensus side (53%)- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $9.4K · now 94¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (35% of 20)
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $8.4K · now 89¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (24% of 25)
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $7.2K · now 96¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (35% of 48)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $5.1K · now 67¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (66% of 149)
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No $4.8K · now 72¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $4.8K · now 34¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No $3.6K · now 23¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $3.6K · now 23¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
4,909 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 50¢- Entertainment
+2 pts
side won 57% of 988 · avg entry 54¢
ROI 0%
- Mentions
+5 pts
side won 63% of 222 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +4%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 38% of 199 · avg entry 34¢
ROI −2%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 39% of 348 at an average 44¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 37%(won 9% of 1820)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 38% of 598)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 60% of 609)
- 70¢ and up: 38%(won 92% of 1882)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.