Consensus PnL $31K · win rate 28% (1919–4951, n=6870) · PM monthly #119 · holds 26 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$30.7K
Record
1919W / 4951L
Win Rate
28.0%
of 6870 settled
Batting Avg
17.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2556
Source
PM monthly #119
Record (90 d)
683/3098 · 22%
Trades
2,145
Markets
8,230
Volume
$1.8M
Top consensus positions
26 in listed consensus markets · 22 of 26 on the consensus side (85%)- Will Trump and Putin not meet?No $182 · now 85¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (53% of 19)
- Will Abdul El-Sayed run 0 to 3 points behind Jocelyn Benson?No $124 · now 71¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No $62 · now 72¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (72% of 44)
- Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat?No $54 · now 24¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will PP win the most seats in Ciudad Real in the 2026 Spanish general election?No $30 · now 9¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?No $25 · now 81¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?No $24 · now 24¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $2 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (98% of 47)
Specialties
2,264 settled consensus markets · held side won 21% at an average entry of 25¢- Politics
+4 pts
side won 22% of 18 · avg entry 18¢
ROI −4%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 18% of 119 at an average 30¢ entry (−12 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 70%(won 2% of 1586)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 40% of 141)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 57% of 230)
- 70¢ and up: 14%(won 85% of 307)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.