Will Benfica win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 85¢ · $404 held · ends May 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$403.81
$86.09
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 thefakenick | Noavg 87¢ | $259.85 | $249.5 | -$5.87 | 56% 828-655 (1483) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $10.24 | $64.5 | +$54.26 | 43% 2045-2667 (4712) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $45 | $45 | +$0 | 56% 3078-2437 (5515) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yes | $44.81 | $44.81 | +$37.7 | 57% 17353-12958 (30311) |
thefakenickInvested
$259.85
Value
$249.5
PnL
-$5.87
Record
56%
828-655 (1483)
Invested
$10.24
Value
$64.5
PnL
+$54.26
Record
43%
2045-2667 (4712)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$45
Value
$45
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3078-2437 (5515)
Invested
$44.81
Value
$44.81
PnL
+$37.7
Record
57%
17353-12958 (30311)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.