Consensus PnL $117K · win rate 48% (1752–1897, n=3649) · hand-picked wallet · holds 71 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$116.7K
Record
1752W / 1897L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 3649 settled
Batting Avg
61.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1874
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
533,333
Markets
6,553
Volume
$11.9M
Top consensus positions
71 in listed consensus markets · 35 of 71 on the consensus side (49%)- Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026?No $290 · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (38% of 8)
- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Yes $282 · now 47¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?No $225 · now 77¢ · in at 74¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?No $178 · now 89¢ · in at 89¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?No $161 · now 89¢ · in at 89¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No $160 · now 81¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (63% of 38)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $140 · now 70¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (76% of 95)
- Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP?No $139 · now 69¢ · in at 69¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
3,782 settled consensus markets · held side won 35% at an average entry of 35¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 35% of 404 · avg entry 32¢
ROI 0%
- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 31% of 407 · avg entry 29¢
ROI 0%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 55% of 251 · avg entry 50¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Tech — held side won 22% of 195 at an average 24¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 64%(won 6% of 2404)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 37% of 153)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 68% of 159)
- 70¢ and up: 28%(won 96% of 1066)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.