Consensus PnL $49K · win rate 44% (1405–1818, n=3223) · PM monthly #142 · holds 34 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$49.4K
Record
1405W / 1818L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 3223 settled
Batting Avg
51.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2003
Source
PM monthly #142
Trades
5,124
Markets
5,380
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
34 in listed consensus markets · 22 of 34 on the consensus side (65%)- Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?No $504 · now 77¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No $372 · now 20¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?No $337 · now 73¢ · in at 76¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No $263 · now 77¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (65% of 24)
- Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?No $205 · now 85¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?No $126 · now 46¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?No $88 · now 16¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $52 · now 19¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
Specialties
2,810 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 49¢- Soccer
+33 pts
side won 90% of 30 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +25%
- Elections
+3 pts
side won 68% of 623 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +6%
- Weather
+5 pts
side won 42% of 143 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +13%
Weakest: Tech — held side won 54% of 198 at an average 56¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 43%(won 4% of 1210)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 49% of 198)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 67% of 200)
- 70¢ and up: 43%(won 96% of 1202)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.