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5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 81¢ · $537 held · ends Jun 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$536.86
$82.87
69.3¢ → 81¢
+17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 thefakenick | Noavg 68.4¢ | $259.07 | $316.92 | +$57.85 | 50% 922-907 (1829) |
 extractive-manatee | Noavg 69.7¢ | $133.12 | $91.29 | +$12.21 | 34% 660-1265 (1925) |
ND ndb1<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $70.52 | $77.78 | +$13.48 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
PU purplegatto<$100 | Noavg 82.7¢ | $30.61 | $27.75 | -$0.37 | 49% 6287-6447 (12734) |
AU auros2<$100 | No | $23.11 | $23.11 | -$0.31 | — 4-0 (4) |
thefakenickInvested
$259.07
Value
$316.92
PnL
+$57.85
Record
50%
922-907 (1829)
extractive-manateeInvested
$133.12
Value
$91.29
PnL
+$12.21
Record
34%
660-1265 (1925)
Invested
$70.52
Value
$77.78
PnL
+$13.48
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
Invested
$30.61
Value
$27.75
PnL
-$0.37
Record
49%
6287-6447 (12734)
Invested
$23.11
Value
$23.11
PnL
-$0.31
Record
—
4-0 (4)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.