Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $13 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$12.88

Combined PnL

-$540.5

Smart Money Entry

1.9¢ → 0.1¢

-97% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$12.88

Total Shares25,767

Combined PnL-$540.5

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$336.35	$8	-$328.35	35% 35-64 (99)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$108.38	$2.44	-$106.04	47% 83-94 (177)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.96	$2.27	-$98.77	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
12 123987456CTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$847.58	$0.17	-$7.33	45% 1905-2348 (4253)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$336.35

Value

PnL

-$328.35

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$108.38

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$106.04

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.96

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$98.77

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

123987456CTR

Yes

Invested

$847.58

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$7.33

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.