Consensus PnL -$762K · win rate 27% (925–2524, n=3449) · was PM monthly #673 · holds 97 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-761.6K
Record
925W / 2524L
Win Rate
27.0%
of 3449 settled
Batting Avg
44.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2219
Source
PM monthly #673
Trades
6,480
Markets
7,687
Volume
$9.0M
Top consensus positions
97 in listed consensus markets · 74 of 97 on the consensus side (76%)- Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?No $8.6K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (9% of 11)
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No $8.5K · now 90¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No $8.1K · now 95¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (75% of 20)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $5.8K · now 65¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $5.5K · now 99¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (81% of 47)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?No $5.4K · now 56¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?No $5.3K · now 99¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (35% of 26)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $5.0K · now 99¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (91% of 47)
Specialties
2,291 settled consensus markets · held side won 78% at an average entry of 53¢- Tech
+31 pts
side won 87% of 181 · avg entry 55¢
ROI −2%
- Mentions
+28 pts
side won 88% of 505 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +3%
- Elections
+28 pts
side won 81% of 365 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 30%(won 30% of 696)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 93% of 245)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 98% of 387)
- 70¢ and up: 42%(won 100% of 963)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.