Consensus PnL -$5.3K · win rate 52% (121–112, n=233) · PM monthly #76 · holds 173 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-5.3K
Record
121W / 112L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 233 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1652
Source
PM monthly #76
Trades
64
Markets
793
Volume
$0
Top consensus positions
173 in listed consensus markets · 129 of 173 on the consensus side (75%)- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No $7.8K · now 95¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (75% of 20)
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No $7.7K · now 90¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $5.6K · now 99¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (83% of 48)
- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No $4.8K · now 90¢ · in at 68¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No $4.6K · now 95¢with the consensus (94% of 16)
- Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Yes $4.5K · now 31¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No $4.5K · now 75¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (67% of 34)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $4.1K · now 99¢with the consensus (94% of 47)
Specialties
2 settled consensus markets · held side won 0% at an average entry of 17¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 100%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.