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65
Consensus PnL $379K · win rate 34% (27–53, n=80) · PM monthly #53 · holds 43 consensus positions
0x65757591...c769b198Polymarket
🐋Whale🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$379.3K
Record
27W / 53L
Win Rate
34.0%
of 80 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2166
Source
PM monthly #53
Trades
91
Markets
136
Volume
$4.7M
Top consensus positions
43 in listed consensus markets · 22 of 43 on the consensus side (51%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $236K · now 65¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Yes $52K · now 8¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Yes $23K · now 17¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No $22K · now 26¢ · in at 26¢with the consensus (45% of 40)
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $19K · now 49¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $16K · now 56¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes $11K · now 33¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (76% of 38)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $8.7K · now 19¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
33 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 47¢- Elections
+51 pts
side won 83% of 18 · avg entry 32¢
ROI +37%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 52%(won 76% of 17)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 100% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 42%(won 100% of 14)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.