Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $5 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$5.01
-$333.25
3.4¢ → 0.1¢
-99% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011CTR | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $282.75 | $4.1 | -$278.65 | 48% 3491-3823 (7314) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.8 | $0.8 | -$54.71 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
RA ratedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $0 | $0.09 | +$0.09 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
 flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0 | $0.01 | +$0.01 | 39% 965-1508 (2473) |
Invested
$282.75
Value
$4.1
PnL
-$278.65
Record
48%
3491-3823 (7314)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$54.71
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.09
PnL
+$0.09
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0.01
Record
39%
965-1508 (2473)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.