Consensus PnL $136K · win rate 81% (7714–1804, n=9518) · was PM monthly #957 · holds 79 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$135.8K
Record
7714W / 1804L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 9518 settled
Batting Avg
49.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#396
Source
PM monthly #957
Trades
58,244
Markets
17,164
Volume
$10.3M
Top consensus positions
79 in listed consensus markets · 50 of 79 on the consensus side (63%)- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $475 · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (83% of 48)
- Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?No $170 · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $161 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $161 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $161 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $120 · now 99¢ · in at 100¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?No $111 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (38% of 8)
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No $93 · now 46¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
11,836 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 86¢- College Football
+3 pts
side won 94% of 35 · avg entry 92¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Golf — held side won 97% of 66 at an average 98¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 5% of 939)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 37% of 353)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 63% of 524)
- 70¢ and up: 85%(won 97% of 10020)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.