Consensus PnL $27K · win rate 25% (447–1350, n=1797) · hand-picked wallet · holds 35 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$26.7K
Record
447W / 1350L
Win Rate
25.0%
of 1797 settled
Batting Avg
50.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2226
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
63,305
Markets
6,698
Volume
$17.5M
Top consensus positions
35 in listed consensus markets · 26 of 35 on the consensus side (74%)- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?No $261 · now 91¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $46 · now 27¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026?No $44 · now 35¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?No $42 · now 83¢ · in at 72¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?No $32 · now 86¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (65% of 20)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?Yes $29 · now 5¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?No $25 · now 82¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (91% of 11)
- Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Yes $20 · now 97¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
Specialties
3,819 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 86¢- Entertainment
+5 pts
side won 93% of 843 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +3%
- Mentions
+6 pts
side won 87% of 349 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +5%
- Economy
+5 pts
side won 90% of 361 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 20% of 313)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 64% of 119)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 78% of 171)
- 70¢ and up: 84%(won 99% of 3216)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.