Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 61¢ · $433 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
2 arb excluded
$432.95
$0.59
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
2010h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816 | Noavg 61¢ | $225.62 | $223.77 | -$1.85 | 0% 1-647 (648) |
 LornaPredictsARB<$100 | Noavg 61.7¢ | $114.4 | $115.26 | +$0.86 | 16% 10-52 (62) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 61.7¢ | $74 | $72.6 | -$1.4 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.4¢ | $40.4 | $42.66 | +$2.26 | |
WA WarriorHARB<$100 | Noavg 62.4¢ | $54.41 | $53.87 | -$0.54 | — 0-12 (12) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62.4¢ | $33.64 | $32.59 | -$1.05 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.6¢ | $20.77 | $21.28 | +$0.51 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.7¢ | $22 | $23.7 | +$1.7 | 40% 3002-4411 (7413) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.7¢ | $15.62 | $16.35 | +$0.74 | — 8-8 (16) |
Invested
$225.62
Value
$223.77
PnL
-$1.85
Record
0%
1-647 (648)
LornaPredictsARB<$100Invested
$114.4
Value
$115.26
PnL
+$0.86
Record
16%
10-52 (62)
Both legs:
Invested
$54.41
Value
$53.87
PnL
-$0.54
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Both legs:
Invested
$22
Value
$23.7
PnL
+$1.7
Record
40%
3002-4411 (7413)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$15.62
Value
$16.35
PnL
+$0.74
Record
—
8-8 (16)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.