Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Colorado Avalanche be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 19¢ · $130 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$130.12
-$2.35
19.8¢ → 19.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $84.37 | $82.44 | -$1.88 | 41% 2126-3051 (5177) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $26.25 | $22.43 | -$1.73 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $23 | $21.36 | -$1.64 | 55% 3181-2635 (5816) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.48 | $3.91 | +$2.9 | 67% 27537-13843 (41380) |
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$84.37
Value
$82.44
PnL
-$1.88
Record
41%
2126-3051 (5177)
Invested
$26.25
Value
$22.43
PnL
-$1.73
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$23
Value
$21.36
PnL
-$1.64
Record
55%
3181-2635 (5816)
Invested
$0.48
Value
$3.91
PnL
+$2.9
Record
67%
27537-13843 (41380)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.