Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $190 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$189.7
$45.54
0.6¢ → 0.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH ChuDebbieSharpCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.1 | $157.52 | +$65.97 | 52% 171-157 (328) |
 thefakenickCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $5.17 | $20.42 | +$15.25 | 56% 837-657 (1494) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $1.3K | $11.25 | -$34.1 | 51% 2116-2026 (4142) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $65 | $0.52 | -$1.58 | 36% 1958-3471 (5429) |
Invested
$0.1
Value
$157.52
PnL
+$65.97
Record
52%
171-157 (328)
thefakenickCTR<$100Invested
$5.17
Value
$20.42
PnL
+$15.25
Record
56%
837-657 (1494)
Invested
$1,318.32
Value
$11.25
PnL
-$34.1
Record
51%
2116-2026 (4142)
Invested
$65
Value
$0.52
PnL
-$1.58
Record
36%
1958-3471 (5429)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.