Consensus PnL $8.6K · win rate 59% (145–100, n=245) · was PM monthly #988 · holds 26 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$8.6K
Record
145W / 100L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 245 settled
Batting Avg
70.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1267
Source
PM monthly #988
Record (90 d)
125/288 · 43%
Trades
3,697
Markets
483
Volume
$155.5K
Top consensus positions
26 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 26 on the consensus side (73%)- Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $748 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
- Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?Yes $706 · now 12¢ · in at 12¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $295 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?Yes $269 · now 5¢ · in at 8¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $198 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $175 · now 7¢ · in at 9¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $160 · now 3¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 19)
- Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup?Yes $158 · now 1¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
262 settled consensus markets · held side won 28% at an average entry of 27¢- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 15% of 34 · avg entry 11¢
ROI 0%
- College Basketball
+2 pts
side won 12% of 25 · avg entry 10¢
ROI 0%
- MLB
+2 pts
side won 31% of 88 · avg entry 28¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Golf — held side won 7% of 28 at an average 8¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 66%(won 4% of 172)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 28% of 18)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 71% of 24)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 92% of 48)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.