Consensus PnL $27K · win rate 32% (1041–2193, n=3234) · PM monthly #380 · holds 86 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$27.3K
Record
1041W / 2193L
Win Rate
32.0%
of 3234 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2528
Source
PM monthly #380
Record (90 d)
433/1049 · 41%
Trades
1,744
Markets
6,679
Volume
$1.8M
Top consensus positions
86 in listed consensus markets · 66 of 86 on the consensus side (77%)- Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes $339 · now 60¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (74% of 19)
- Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?Yes $82 · now 10¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes $72 · now 14¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes $32 · now 2¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $23 · now 2¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 28)
- Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $20 · now 9¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?Yes $18 · now 12¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Yes $17 · now 6¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,760 settled consensus markets · held side won 37% at an average entry of 38¢- Tennis
+3 pts
side won 19% of 32 · avg entry 16¢
ROI +5%
- F1
+4 pts
side won 60% of 25 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +3%
- MLB
+8 pts
side won 45% of 11 · avg entry 37¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 3% of 216 at an average 4¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 59%(won 1% of 1036)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 42% of 66)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 65% of 72)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 97% of 586)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.