Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in October?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 43¢ · $814 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$814.31
$64.94
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
62h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoatCTR | Yesavg 37.4¢ | $485.65 | $551.83 | +$66.18 | 45% 383-477 (860) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 57¢ | $131.47 | $132.53 | +$1.07 | 47% 13002-14566 (27568) |
GR grinder1011<$100 | Noavg 56.3¢ | $81.08 | $84.55 | +$2.09 | 37% 109-185 (294) |
SP SPLPB<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $36 | $33.9 | -$2.1 | 24% 666-2084 (2750) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $13.8 | $11.5 | -$2.3 | 49% 1040-1098 (2138) |
YoungAlphaGoatCTRInvested
$485.65
Value
$551.83
PnL
+$66.18
Record
45%
383-477 (860)
Invested
$131.47
Value
$132.53
PnL
+$1.07
Record
47%
13002-14566 (27568)
Invested
$81.08
Value
$84.55
PnL
+$2.09
Record
37%
109-185 (294)
Invested
$36
Value
$33.9
PnL
-$2.1
Record
24%
666-2084 (2750)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$11.5
PnL
-$2.3
Record
49%
1040-1098 (2138)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.