Consensus PnL $7.4K · win rate 43% (101–136, n=237) · was PM monthly #748 · holds 58 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$7.4K
Record
101W / 136L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 237 settled
Batting Avg
60.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2283
Source
PM monthly #748
Record (90 d)
109/213 · 51%
Trades
1,012
Markets
382
Volume
$443.5K
Top consensus positions
58 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 58 on the consensus side (33%)- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $16K · now 89¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (55% of 56)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $4.7K · now 20¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Blue tsunami in 2026?No $3.3K · now 33¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?No $3.2K · now 53¢ · in at 70¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.2K · now 48¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No $3.0K · now 47¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?Yes $2.8K · now 53¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat?No $1.9K · now 82¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
Specialties
134 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 41¢- Economy
+10 pts
side won 48% of 46 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +9%
- Entertainment
+9 pts
side won 54% of 28 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +15%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 46%(won 7% of 61)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 75% of 16)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 80% of 20)
- 70¢ and up: 28%(won 95% of 37)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.