Consensus PnL $67K · win rate 48% (362–398, n=760) · was PM monthly #885 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$67.2K
Record
362W / 398L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 760 settled
Batting Avg
10.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2046
Source
PM monthly #885
Record (90 d)
132/401 · 33%
Trades
895
Markets
1,049
Volume
$1.7M
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 11 on the consensus side (64%)- Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31?Yes $682 · now 73¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $615 · now 62¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (59% of 75)
- Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.65 and $0.70 on November 30, 2026?Yes $553 · now 37¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in October?Yes $552 · now 43¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
- Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?No $520 · now 26¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (67% of 15)
- Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?Yes $366 · now 30¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?Yes $159 · now 95¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?Yes $57 · now 6¢ · in at 12¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
734 settled consensus markets · held side won 32% at an average entry of 29¢- Finance
+6 pts
side won 45% of 190 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +4%
- Elections
+2 pts
side won 17% of 303 · avg entry 15¢
ROI +1%
- Mentions
+7 pts
side won 80% of 49 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 25% of 16 at an average 37¢ entry (−12 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 66%(won 10% of 482)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 42% of 65)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 65% of 49)
- 70¢ and up: 19%(won 93% of 138)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.