Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Democrats win the Ohio, Iowa, and Maine Senate seats?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 43¢ · $333 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$333.13
$203.6
17.1¢ → 43¢
+151% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $37.74 | $149.47 | +$111.72 | 38% 187-302 (489) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR | Yesavg 20.5¢ | $65.15 | $139.48 | +$74.33 | — |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.4¢ | $18.7 | $21.5 | +$3.3 | 40% 23-35 (58) |
HD HD45CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $6.97 | $18.04 | +$11.07 | — 10-8 (18) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $1.11 | $4.64 | +$3.18 | 37% 692-1174 (1866) |
Invested
$37.74
Value
$149.47
PnL
+$111.72
Record
38%
187-302 (489)
Invested
$65.15
Value
$139.48
PnL
+$74.33
Record
—
Invested
$18.7
Value
$21.5
PnL
+$3.3
Record
40%
23-35 (58)
Invested
$6.97
Value
$18.04
PnL
+$11.07
Record
—
10-8 (18)
Invested
$1.11
Value
$4.64
PnL
+$3.18
Record
37%
692-1174 (1866)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.