Consensus PnL -$8.5K · win rate 88% (14–2, n=16) · was PM monthly #829 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-8.5K
Record
14W / 2L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 16 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#281
Source
PM monthly #829
Trades
11
Markets
28
Volume
$73.0K
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 6 on the consensus side (50%)- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $15K · now 52¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (57% of 35)
- Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes $5.3K · now 43¢with the consensus (74% of 38)
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No $3.0K · now 42¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (48% of 46)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $1.8K · now 26¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $627 · now 26¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No $339 · now 26¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
10 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 68¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where HD45's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 100% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 0% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 100% of 6)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.