Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $104 held · ends Nov 7

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$103.6

Combined PnL

$8.72

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$73.22

Total Shares81

Combined PnL-$1.45

Yes2 traders

Total Value$30.39

Total Shares304

Combined PnL+$10.18

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$43.29	$42.53	-$0.76	57% 17252-12909 (30161)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 92¢	$11.04	$30.69	-$0.69	42% 1899-2623 (4522)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$12.89	$18.19	+$5.3	73% 2836-1048 (3884)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$7.32	$12.2	+$4.88	53% 7533-6661 (14194)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$43.29

Value

$42.53

PnL

-$0.76

Record

57%

17252-12909 (30161)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$11.04

Value

$30.69

PnL

-$0.69

Record

42%

1899-2623 (4522)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.89

Value

$18.19

PnL

+$5.3

Record

73%

2836-1048 (3884)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.32

Value

$12.2

PnL

+$4.88

Record

53%

7533-6661 (14194)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.8%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.