Consensus PnL $158K · win rate 37% (421–712, n=1133) · PM monthly #31 · holds 65 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$158.3K
Record
421W / 712L
Win Rate
37.0%
of 1133 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2435
Source
PM monthly #31
Record (90 d)
3993/8593 · 46%
Trades
3,081
Markets
31,660
Volume
$3.4M
Top consensus positions
65 in listed consensus markets · 52 of 65 on the consensus side (80%)- Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes $4.4K · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Yes $625 · now 28¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No $299 · now 72¢ · in at 72¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $273 · now 57¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (38% of 73)
- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $251 · now 67¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (59% of 28)
- Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No $194 · now 72¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (74% of 35)
- Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $142 · now 1¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $113 · now 57¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (54% of 36)
Specialties
3,750 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 59¢- Economy
+2 pts
side won 69% of 78 · avg entry 67¢
ROI −2%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 70% of 60 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +7%
- Esports
+3 pts
side won 66% of 35 · avg entry 63¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 49% of 675 at an average 50¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 38%(won 3% of 1409)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 43% of 120)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 70% of 160)
- 70¢ and up: 55%(won 98% of 2061)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.