Consensus PnL $46K · win rate 58% (4356–3145, n=7501) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 24 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$45.6K
Record
4356W / 3145L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 7501 settled
Batting Avg
67.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1271
Source
PM monthly #1000
Trades
10,796
Markets
9,426
Volume
$10.7M
Top consensus positions
24 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 24 on the consensus side (71%)- Will Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw?No $4.8K · now 77¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (65% of 23)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $4.2K · now 84¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Spirit $3.1K · now 57¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Team Yandex)
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?No $2.6K · now 25¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 42.5Over $2.4K · now 47¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (82% of 12)
- Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No $2.3K · now 76¢ · in at 71¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?No $2.3K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?No $1.9K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
6,575 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 51¢- College Football
+20 pts
side won 65% of 69 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +25%
- Geopolitics
+13 pts
side won 63% of 95 · avg entry 50¢
ROI 0%
- Esports
+5 pts
side won 51% of 863 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 55% of 82 at an average 59¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 13% of 1875)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 47% of 1468)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 65% of 1105)
- 70¢ and up: 32%(won 93% of 2127)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.